Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach

We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things

Hierarchical statistical techniques are necessary to draw reliable conclusions from analysis of isolated cardiomyocyte studies

Aims It is generally accepted that post-MI heart failure (HF) changes a variety of aspects of sarcoplasmic reticular Ca2+ fluxes but for some aspects there is disagreement over whether there is an increase or decrease. The commonest statistical approach is to treat data collected from each cell as independent, even though they are really clustered with multiple likely similar cells from each heart. In this study, we test whether this statistical assumption of independence can lead the investigator to draw conclusions that would be considered erroneous if the analysis handled clustering with specific statistical techniques (hierarchical tests). Methods and results Ca2+ transients were recorded in cells loaded with Fura-2AM and sparks were recorded in cells loaded with Fluo-4AM. Data were analysed twice, once with the common statistical approach (assumption of independence) and once with hierarchical statistical methodologies designed to allow for any clustering. The statistical tests found that there was significant hierarchical clustering. This caused the common statistical approach to underestimate the standard error and report artificially small P values. For example, this would have led to the erroneous conclusion that time to 50% peak transient amplitude was significantly prolonged in HF. Spark analysis showed clustering, both within each cell and also within each rat, for morphological variables. This means that a three-level hierarchical model is sometimes required for such measures. Standard statistical methodologies, if used instead, erroneously suggest that spark amplitude is significantly greater in HF and spark duration is reduced in HF. Conclusion Ca2+ fluxes in isolated cardiomyocytes show so much clustering that the common statistical approach that assumes independence of each data point will frequently give the false appearance of statistically significant changes. Hierarchical statistical methodologies need a little more effort, but are necessary for reliable conclusions. We present cost-free simple tools for performing these analyses

Neutron studies of Na-ion battery materials

The relative vast abundance and more equitable global distribution of terrestrial sodium makes sodium-ion batteries (NIBs) potentially cheaper and more sustainable alternatives to commercial lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). However, the practical capacities and cycle lives of NIBs at present do not match those of LIBs and have therefore hindered their progress to commercialisation. The present drawback of NIB technology stems largely from the electrode materials and their associated Na+ion storage mechanisms. Increased understanding of the electrochemical storage mechanisms and kinetics is therefore vital for the development of current and novel materials to realise the commercial NIB. In contrast to x-ray techniques, the non-dependency of neutron scattering on the atomic number of elements (Z) can substantially increase the scattering contrast of small elements such as sodium and carbon, making neutron techniques powerful for the investigation of NIB electrode materials. Moreover, neutrons are far more penetrating which enables more complex sample environments including in situ and operando studies. Here, we introduce the theory of, and review the use of, neutron diffraction and quasi-elastic neutron scattering, to investigate the structural and dynamic properties of electrode and electrolyte materials for NIBs. To improve our understanding of the actual sodium storage mechanisms and identify intermediate stages during charge/discharge, ex situ, in situ, and operando neutron experiments are required. However, to date there are few studies where operando experiments are conducted during electrochemical cycling. This highlights an opportunity for research to elucidate the operating mechanisms within NIB materials that are under much debate at present

Neutron studies of Na-ion battery materials

The relative vast abundance and more equitable global distribution of terrestrial sodium makes sodium-ion batteries (NIBs) potentially cheaper and more sustainable alternatives to commercial lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). However, the practical capacities and cycle lives of NIBs at present do not match those of LIBs and have therefore hindered their progress to commercialisation. The present drawback of NIB technology stems largely from the electrode materials and their associated Na+ion storage mechanisms. Increased understanding of the electrochemical storage mechanisms and kinetics is therefore vital for the development of current and novel materials to realise the commercial NIB. In contrast to x-ray techniques, the non-dependency of neutron scattering on the atomic number of elements (Z) can substantially increase the scattering contrast of small elements such as sodium and carbon, making neutron techniques powerful for the investigation of NIB electrode materials. Moreover, neutrons are far more penetrating which enables more complex sample environments including in situ and operando studies. Here, we introduce the theory of, and review the use of, neutron diffraction and quasi-elastic neutron scattering, to investigate the structural and dynamic properties of electrode and electrolyte materials for NIBs. To improve our understanding of the actual sodium storage mechanisms and identify intermediate stages during charge/discharge, ex situ, in situ, and operando neutron experiments are required. However, to date there are few studies where operando experiments are conducted during electrochemical cycling. This highlights an opportunity for research to elucidate the operating mechanisms within NIB materials that are under much debate at present

Controlled interfacial assembly of 2D curved colloidal crystals and jammed shells

Assembly of colloidal particles on fluid interfaces is a promising technique for synthesizing two-dimensional micro-crystalline materials useful in fields as diverse as biomedicine1, materials science2, mineral flotation3 and food processing4. Current approaches rely on bulk emulsification methods, require further chemical and thermal treatments, and are restrictive with respect to the materials employed5-9. The development of methods that exploit the great potential of interfacial assembly for producing tailored materials have been hampered by the lack of understanding of the assembly process. Here we report a microfluidic method that allows direct visualization and understanding of the dynamics of colloidal crystal growth on curved interfaces. The crystals are periodically ejected to form stable jammed shells, which we refer to as colloidal armour. We propose that the energetic barriers to interfacial crystal growth and organization can be overcome by targeted delivery of colloidal particles through hydrodynamic flows. Our method allows an unprecedented degree of control over armour composition, size and stability.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Molecular diversity of anthracnose pathogen populations associated with UK strawberry production suggests multiple introductions of three different Colletotrichum species.

Fragaria × ananassa (common name: strawberry) is a globally cultivated hybrid species belonging to Rosaceae family. Colletotrichum acutatum sensu lato (s.l.) is considered to be the second most economically important pathogen worldwide affecting strawberries. A collection of 148 Colletotrichum spp. isolates including 67 C. acutatum s.l. isolates associated with the phytosanitary history of UK strawberry production were used to characterize multi-locus genetic variation of this pathogen in the UK, relative to additional reference isolates that represent a worldwide sampling of the diversity of the fungus. The evidence indicates that three different species C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae are associated with strawberry production in the UK, which correspond to previously designated genetic groups A2, A4 and A3, respectively. Among these species, 12 distinct haplotypes were identified suggesting multiple introductions into the country. A subset of isolates was also used to compare aggressiveness in causing disease on strawberry plants and fruits. Isolates belonging to C. nymphaeae, C. godetiae and C. fioriniae representative of the UK anthracnose pathogen populations showed variation in their aggressiveness. Among the three species, C. nymphaeae and C. fioriniae appeared to be more aggressive compared to C. godetiae. This study highlights the genetic and pathogenic heterogeneity of the C. acutatum s.l. populations introduced into the UK linked to strawberry production

Protein disulfide-isomerase interacts with a substrate protein at all stages along its folding pathway

In contrast to molecular chaperones that couple protein folding to ATP hydrolysis, protein disulfide-isomerase (PDI) catalyzes protein folding coupled to formation of disulfide bonds (oxidative folding). However, we do not know how PDI distinguishes folded, partly-folded and unfolded protein substrates. As a model intermediate in an oxidative folding pathway, we prepared a two-disulfide mutant of basic pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI) and showed by NMR that it is partly-folded and highly dynamic. NMR studies show that it binds to PDI at the same site that binds peptide ligands, with rapid binding and dissociation kinetics; surface plasmon resonance shows its interaction with PDI has a Kd of ca. 10−5 M. For comparison, we characterized the interactions of PDI with native BPTI and fully-unfolded BPTI. Interestingly, PDI does bind native BPTI, but binding is quantitatively weaker than with partly-folded and unfolded BPTI. Hence PDI recognizes and binds substrates via permanently or transiently unfolded regions. This is the first study of PDI's interaction with a partly-folded protein, and the first to analyze this folding catalyst's changing interactions with substrates along an oxidative folding pathway. We have identified key features that make PDI an effective catalyst of oxidative protein folding – differential affinity, rapid ligand exchange and conformational flexibility

The method of educational assessment affects children’s neural processing and performance: behavioural and fMRI Evidence.

Standardised educational assessments are now widespread, yet their development has given comparatively more consideration to what to assess than how to optimally assess students’ competencies. Existing evidence from behavioural studies with children and neuroscience studies with adults suggest that the method of assessment may affect neural processing and performance, but current evidence remains limited. To investigate the impact of assessment methods on neural processing and performance in young children, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify and quantify the neural correlates during performance across a range of current approaches to standardised spelling assessment. Results indicated that children’s test performance declined as the cognitive load of assessment method increased. Activation of neural nodes associated with working memory further suggests that this performance decline may be a consequence of a higher cognitive load, rather than the complexity of the content. These findings provide insights into principles of assessment (re)design, to ensure assessment results are an accurate reflection of students’ true levels of competency

The Role of Parvalbumin-positive Interneurons in Auditory Steady-State Response Deficits in Schizophrenia

© The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Despite an increasing body of evidence demonstrating subcellular alterations in parvalbumin-positive (PV+) interneurons in schizophrenia, their functional consequences remain elusive. Since PV+ interneurons are involved in the generation of fast cortical rhythms, these changes have been hypothesized to contribute to well-established alterations of beta and gamma range oscillations in patients suffering from schizophrenia. However, the precise role of these alterations and the role of different subtypes of PV+ interneurons is still unclear. Here we used a computational model of auditory steady-state response (ASSR) deficits in schizophrenia. We investigated the differential effects of decelerated synaptic dynamics, caused by subcellular alterations at two subtypes of PV+ interneurons: basket cells and chandelier cells. Our simulations suggest that subcellular alterations at basket cell synapses rather than chandelier cell synapses are the main contributor to these deficits. Particularly, basket cells might serve as target for innovative therapeutic interventions aiming at reversing the oscillatory deficits.Peer reviewe